Thursday, February 26, 2009

Retire The Futility Meter; Trade Heatley

Word tricking out from the Senators through TSN.ca amongst other places is that Brian Murray is making statements indicating the Senators will be sellers rather than buyers as the trade deadline approaches.

I'm going to be incredibly generous and interpret this as meaning that the Senators have seen the light. Therefore no point in continuing to beat a dead horse with the Futility Meter if management's view is now where it should be, which is on next year and beyond.

Murray's list of untouchables is pretty short:
Murray said he won't be asking captain Daniel Alfredsson, defenceman Chris Phillips, sniper Dany Heatley or two-way centre Mike Fisher to waive their no trade clauses.
The notable absence on this list is Jason Spezza, who's no-trade-clause doesn't kick in until July.

I'm not really sure what I think about that. On the one hand, Dany Heatley is a goal scorer. He has a rocket shot and knows how to use it. On the other hand, Heatley's production rate is very low unless he is matched with a quality play-maker; in that, Heatley definitely relies on Spezza's quality of play. When Spezza is on, Heatley can finish; when he's off, Heatley is just another guy with one trick that he can't use to best effect.

Of the two players, I'd rather let Heatley go if forced to choose between the two (or perhaps more accurately, I'd prefer Spezza stay). I know this isn't what your average pundit thinks, but hear me out. Heatley is a finisher, yes. The two problems are that (A) he is an expensive finisher that is only functional if (B) the rest of the team -- from mythical puck-moving-defense through playmaking center -- is firing on all cylinders. Right now it is clear that the Senators are not. Heatley is an asset the team can't afford and can't effectively use.

Spezza's value is in the chances that he takes in trying to create plays. Yes, pundits love to hate those no-look drop-pass turnovers that create odd-man rushes; but when they work, they work beautifully. Spezza is the man who can create the chances.

Besides, we've seen Heatley at work on lines without Spezza, and it hasn't been productive.

Without Heatley on the payroll, the Senators would have more money to look for that combination of assets, that mythical puck-moving-defense as well as more secondary scoring. I think the last two years have shown us that maybe putting all your scoring eggs into one line makes that scoring very vulnerable to being shut down. It may make more sense to have three lines of guys who are "secondary" scoring rather than the one "primary" line with two lines of "gosh it'd be nice if some of you could put the puck in the net once in a while please?" that we seem to be stuck with.

In the medium term, this is all just pie-in-the-sky. Heatley isn't going anywhere... yet. But I don't doubt that if Spezza leaves, Heatley will be next on the list to be run out of town when his production dries up.